Mark Edwards and Jérôme Bérubé talk about some of the players ranked in our recent HockeyProspect.com Top 64 NHL Draft Ranking. The guys discuss players ranked in the top 10. (Top 32 free to view)

The Consensus #1 Prospect for the 2026 NHL Draft is No Longer Our Top Pick

After extensive viewings, the player who entered the year as the consensus number one has slipped, and a new prospect has claimed the top spot for very specific, compelling reasons.

1. Keaton Verhoeff is the Modern Franchise Defenseman

Our new #1 ranked prospect for the 2026 NHL Draft is Keaton Verhoeff. A massive, right-shot defenseman pushing 6’4” and 208 lbs, Verhoff is already making an impact as a freshman at the University of North Dakota. What makes his strong start even more impressive is that he is one of the youngest players in this draft class; he won’t turn 18 until June, meaning he’s competing hard and putting up points against older competition as a 17-year-old all year long.

Verhoff is so appealing to NHL teams because he has all the traits you want in a franchise cornerstone. He has a bomb of a shot from the point, immense physicality in his own zone, and a high-end compete level. He has a special knack for getting the puck through, finding and making shooting lanes. To put it bluntly, he just scores goals. His potential to be a 20-goal scorer from the blue line is a rare and highly coveted asset.

“…the ability to have a guy with this size competitiveness who actually has a chance to score 20 goals from your back end it’s pretty appetizing for for teams so that’s one of the things that just makes him bit of a bit of a difference maker…”

Perhaps the most fascinating detail about Verhoff is his background: he was a goalie until he was 11 years old. This suggests an incredible athletic upside and hints at just how much more he could develop. As he continues to learn the nuances of the defenseman position over the next several years, his ceiling appears to be exceptionally high.

2. Ivar Stenberg Grabs the Second Spot

Slotting in at #2 is Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg. A “super skilled jitterbug kind of player,” Stenberg possesses elite-level playmaking and goal-scoring abilities. He is creative, shifty, and consistently produces highlight-reel plays.

The primary concern many scouts had about Stenberg coming into the year was his skating. While it’s not a huge strength, his skating has improved enough to alleviate those concerns. Hee gets the most out of his stride, and it’s his approach that sets him apart—in a way that’s the very opposite of Gavin McKenna. Stenberg’s high-level pace, his relentless play away from the puck, and his overall effort level are all significant strengths, these are the areas that have become weaknesses for McKenna.

His performance in the SHL, Sweden’s top professional league, has been remarkable. His statistical production is on a trajectory to surpass what Leo Carlsson accomplished in his impressive 2023 draft year. When you combine his dynamic skill with his relentless effort, Stenberg became easier to slot at number two.

3. Some Red Flags? Why Gavin McKenna Slipped to #3

Gavin McKenna entered the season as the consensus #1 prospect, and for good reason. His playmaking ability is undisputed and remains elite. However, our early viewings have raised some significant red flags that have caused him to slip to the #3 spot on our board.

The drop is based on two primary issues:

• Lack of 5-on-5 Impact: The vast majority of his production has come on the power play, where he gets more time and space to operate. Out of his first 15 points this season, only four have come at 5-on-5. Top prospects are expected to drive play in all situations, and this has been a point of our concern.
• Inconsistent Effort and Compete Level: We have questions about his play away from the puck. This includes his willingness to engage, battle on the walls, win his own pucks, and go into dirty areas. The most glaring examples involve his backcheck, where there have been instances of him showing little effort, which is not a habit you want to see from a player expected to lead a franchise.

If you’re going to go for the top spot, you’re going to be held to a higher standard and for us, he’s he’s not meeting those standards right now.

McKenna is an immense talent, but the standards for a first-overall pick are incredibly high. The upcoming World Juniors, where he will be playing under coach Dale Hunter, will be an interesting test of his ability to adapt and elevate the complete elements of his game.

4. A Clear Tier Break and a “Celebrini Light”

At #4, we have center Tynan Lawrence. He is a player with a complete, 200-foot game that coaches love, and the fact that he’s a center is significant, as high-end pivots are rare in this class. He can be trusted in all situations, executes systems flawlessly, and combines high-end hockey smarts with a strong compete level.

The comparison we’ve used for him is a “Celebrini light.” While the offensive upside may not be on par with the 2024 first-overall pick, the trustworthiness and all-around game are reminiscent of what made Macklin Celebrini such a surefire pick. Had Lawrence not missed time with an early-season injury, he likely would have been in the conversation to challenge for a top-three spot.

After these top four prospects, we see a distinct gap. The players ranked from fifth on down are currently in a different grouping, creating a clear tier break at the very top of the 2026 draft class.

5. “Compete” and “Skill”

To understand some of the “why” behind our rankings, it helps to understand our scouting philosophy. When we evaluate prospects, we prioritize traits in a specific order:

1. Hockey Sense
2. Compete
3. Skill
4. Skating

For us, a player’s intelligence and competitiveness are the foundational traits that can often determine their ultimate success at the NHL level. Skill is obviously critical, but without the hockey sense to apply it and the compete level to fight through adversity, it can fall short. This philosophy is central to why a player with elite skill like McKenna can slip behind players who currently demonstrate a more complete and competitive approach to the game.

A Long Road Ahead

While this November list represents a significant snapshot of the 2026 draft class, it is far from final. There is a ton of hockey yet to be played, and rankings will continue to evolve as players develop.

 

Watch the full discussion.